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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still