Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
